Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KBGM 010118
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
818 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves through the area late tonight into
tomorrow morning, with a cold day in store on Saturday.
Temperatures warm Sunday into Monday as another low pressure
system moves in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

800 PM Update...

Observations show the transition to snow over the northern
portion of our region. Borderline temperatures remain over the
Southern Tier with a mix of rain and snow expected. Transition
will continue over the next few hours as the cold front
continues to push into the region. Updated temperatures and dew
points with the latest observations. Then made adjustments to
weather grids and snow totals using the latest observations. No
other changes needed at this time.

145 PM Update...

Temperatures have risen above freezing for most of the area early
this afternoon with the winter weather advisories being allowed to
expire. A nice frontogenesis band is developing from Southern
Michigan through Central NY that will enhance precipitation through
the evening. While most of the precipitation will be rain, webcams
in northern Oneida have already shown precipitation
transitioning to snow. As the cold air sinks south, rain will
transition to snow through the NY thruway corridor between 6 and
7 pm. Given the 700 mb fgen band, there will be some good lift
through the dendritic growth zone so snowfall rates could
briefly get over half inch to inch per hour. These high rates
wont last long so total accumulations should stay under 4
inches, outside of northern Oneida that is already seeing some
snow.

The upper level trough axis swings through shortly after midnight
with cold air advection and subsidence quickly bringing and end to
most of the precipitation. With northerly flow off of Lake Ontartio,
some light lake effect flurries is possible in the northern Finger
Lakes.

Another very cold air mass advects in for Saturday into Saturday
night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -16C to -18C so day
time highs struggle to get into the teens in the Southern Tier and
northward. NEPA looks to escape the cold pocket aloft so highs will
be closer to normal for this time of year. With high pressure
building in Saturday night, radiational cooling will drop overnight
lows into the low single digits or below 0 for most of NY while
NEPA, with the lack of snow cover and warmer air aloft, falls into
the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update

A warm frontal boundary then looks to push through the region
Sunday afternoon and evening increasing the clouds once again.
Enough lift and moisture looks present to generate a period of
light to moderate snow across most of central New York. The
highest amount of moisture and QPF looks to be near and north of
the NY Thruway, up across Oneida county. QPF generally is
modeled at 0.15 inch or less for most of the region east of I-81
and south of I-90...with just a few hundreths of an inch or
less back across the central southern tier, finger lakes and
much of NE PA. A strong cold dome will remain in place across
north-central Oneida county, and with a southerly wind this will
create and area of isentropic/orographic enhancement to the
QPF. Current QPF is forecast to be between 0.25 and 0.50 inches
for most of Oneida county, with the higher amounts north. With
some lingering cold it is still possible for ratios to be around
10-15:1 or so. Most of Central NY looks in line to receive a
trace to 2 inches of snow. The higher end amounts of 2-5" or
even locally higher are possible across Oneida county, but there
are still model discrepancies on exact QPF and snowfall amounts
here. Would like to see some more model consistency in these
higher end amounts here before contemplating any winter
headlines. Will mention the possibility for several inches of
snow in the HWO for now, as confidence has reached this
threshold. Temperatures rise into the mid-20s to mid-30s for
highs by Sunday evening, then hold steady or slowly rise more
overnight.

Monday features mainly dry weather through the day. Any
occasional breaks of morning sun will fade, with thicker mid
level clouds advecting in for the afternoon. There will also be
a chance for some late day rain showers over CNY, as moisture
builds ahead of the next front. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages, with highs pushing into the 40s areawide. A
weak mid level shortwave rolls through in the westerly flow
Monday evening into the night. This will keep chances for rain
and snow showers in the forecast, again mainly for CNY.
Overnight lows look to dip into the 20s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM Update

A cold front just drops south of the area on Tuesday with a
return to more typical winter temperatures in the upper 20`s
and 30`s. Other than some possible lake effect snow showers or
flurries it should be dry on Tuesday, under partly sunny skies.
Cold with a slight chance for snow showers or flurries Tuesday
night as the surface high begins sliding off to the north and east.

Yet another warm front looks to push toward the region
Wednesday with a chance for moisture to overrun and be lifted
across our region. Modeling is already being very aggressive
with warm air advection at 850 mb on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. This may result in period of light wintry mix or snow
showers Wednesday...transitioning to mainly freezing rain, sleet
or rain Wednesday night as temperatures potentially rise.

Eventually we get into the quasi-warm sector and change over to
periods of rain on Thursday. The true, strong warm sector looks
to pass into western PA, the translate east-southeast into the
northern Mid-Atlantic...this is where Tw could surge into the
mid-50s or higher. Our Tws look to potentially reach into the
lower 40s in the quasi-warm sector...but may not go much higher
than mid-30s north of I-90. Current NBM ensemble data gets our
high temperatures into the mid-40s to mid-50s...and the official
forecast followed this for now.

There is still uncertainty in exactly how this system and the
temperature patterns will play out, so stay tuned for updates
through the weekend and next week.

This would promote a rapid snowmelt on Thursday where snow
cover is present; except north of I-90 where the lower Tws and
Tds would facilitate more ripening and some slow melting of the
deep snow pack. QPF combined with the snowmelt may pose some
flooding issues but given uncertainities at this point, details
are limited. Ice Jams would have a moderate chance of occurrence
should this outcome pan out. The cold front is then modeled to
push into the region Thursday night and Friday with a return to
more seasonable temperatures and scattered lake effect showers.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front pushes through the region tonight with widespread
precipitation. Rain has already transitioned to snow at RME and
the rain will be changing over to snow in the next couple of
hours at SYR, ITH and BGM. ELM and AVP will see just rain
through the night. LIFR to MVFR restrictions are expected at all
terminals until at least early Saturday morning. High pressure
builds into the region on Saturday with VFR conditions returning
at all locations.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Wintry mix and associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Rain and mixed precipitation and associated restrictions
possible, mainly for CNY terminals.

Tuesday...Another cold front moves through with potential for
lake effect snow once again mainly affecting CNY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A significant portion of the North Branch Susquehanna, Upper
Delaware and Finger Lakes drainages are frozen with temperatures
since mid-January supportive of thickening river ice.

Today`s (Friday) relative mild spell and light rain event will
be the first of several during the upcoming week. River forecast
simulations were indicating only minor rises over the next 24
hours, most of which are below the theoretical threshold to
cause ice breakup on the rivers. Although there may be some
fracturing and movement of ice cover into this weekend, the
general thought is that the flood potential from ice jams is low
over a widespread area. Localized issues cannot be ruled out,
however.

Next week...temperatures will ride a roller-coaster of thawing
and freezing with the next minor thaw expected on Monday. There
still appears to be only limited energy for thermal weakening of
river ice and melting of snow and a continued low potential for
ice jam flooding.

Attention then turns to a low pressure system moving through
the Northeast on Thursday. This system has the potential to
usher in much milder air, higher dewpoints and stronger. In this
scenario, much of the area`s snow cover would likely be erased
into runoff. That combined with a decent rainfall is expected to
cause significant rises on area rivers resulting in at least a
moderate (50-60%) chance for ice jams and potential flooding.
The risk would be reduced slightly should a cooler scenario come
to bear. We need to keep a close eye on this.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/MPK
HYDROLOGY...